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从周一情况看，目前市场似在对美国经济可能无法完成软着陆甚至可能衰退在进行定价交易。
周一有媒体报道称，股市大幅下挫或和交易员押注美联储可能在未来两周内开启降息有关。
眼下在对于股市未来的运行上，可能存在的困惑或者说市场分歧是，最近几日的大幅下挫，是股指创新高后的正常回调，还是意味着本轮超级行情终结？
以美股纳斯达克指数为例，个人认为疫情之后上行周期可分为几个阶段。
阶段一：2020年 3 月- 2021 年12 月， 上行21个月。如果把这段上升视为上升1浪，则之后经历的2022年1-10月的回落调整，则为2浪（回调10个月）。
22 年10 月底至今运行的历时22个月的升浪应为3浪，从上行时间周期看满足了，但量度没有达到2020年3月-2021年12月的1浪升幅，从浪型和幅度上看似存在瑕疵。
这也是困惑之处。
未来会否存在一种可能：急跌后再现暴力反转上行，完美结束22年10月至今的3浪上涨，之后步入4浪调整？
这需要留给市场去解答。
作者：澳村牛哥
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Evaluating the Market Plunge: Personal Insights from Elliott Wave Analysis
Author : David Niu
Based on the situation observed on Monday, the major global markets appear to be pricing in the possibility that the U.S. economy might not achieve a soft landing and could even enter a recession.
Some media outlets have reported that the sharp decline in the stock markets might be related to traders speculating that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates within the next two weeks.
Regarding the future trajectory of the stock market, the potential confusion or divergence lies in whether the recent sharp drop in stock indices is a normal correction after reaching new highs or signifies the end of this upward cycle since the pandemic.
Using the Nasdaq index as an example, the post-pandemic upward cycle might be divided into several phases:
Phase One: From March 2020 to December 2021, an upward movement lasting 21 months. If this rise is considered Wave 1, the subsequent decline from January to October 2022 can be seen as Wave 2 (a 10-month correction).
Phase Two: From the end of October 2022 to the present, the upward movement lasting 22 months should be considered Wave 3. In terms of time, it has met the criteria, but its extent has not reached the level of Wave 1 from March 2020 to December 2021. This discrepancy in wave pattern and extent is the source of confusion.
A puzzle facing us in the near term is whether there might be a sharp upward reversal after this rapid drop, which could perfectly conclude the 3-wave rise from October 2022 to the present, followed by a Wave 4 correction?
Written by David Niu / ACB News (www.acbnews.com.au) on 5th Aug 2024
Disclaimer:
The information provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. The views and opinions expressed are solely those of the author and do not reflect any official policy or position of any agency or organization. Market conditions and financial instruments can change rapidly and unpredictably, and any investment decisions should be made based on thorough research and consultation with a qualified financial advisor. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial decisions made based on the information provided in this publication.
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