
上周市场:
上周全球股市涨跌不一,美股市场出现先涨后跌的大幅回撤行情,主要是受美联储加息与原油价格持续下跌影响,美国标普指数涨至最高2082.25后迅速回撤至1994.75收盘;欧洲与亚太市场出现低位反弹,德国股指30 (DAX)由最低10122.95反弹至最高10829.62,收盘10608.19点;澳指200由最低4909.56反弹至5106.70收盘;香港恒生指数一路上涨3.18%,收盘21755.56;
受美联储加息影响美元走强,美指由开盘97.72上涨至收盘98.73;
纽约商品交易所1月份美国的克萨斯原油价格出现低位反弹迹象,由最低34.29反弹至36.06收盘;
美国2年期国债收益率由0.90%上涨至0.95%。
上周大事:
美联储如市场所预期提高其联邦基准利率0.25个百分点至0.25%-0.5%的区间。美元再次走强。根据17位官方人员的预测,至2016年底,美联储将提高其基准利率至1.375%,这意味着在明年一年之内,美联储将有可能持续季度性加息。美股市场出现大幅回撤,主要是由于加息将导致企业融资成本增加,加之原油价格持续下滑,使得投资者对于市场前景担忧;
在美联储将联邦基金基准利率加息0.25个百分点后,香港金融管理局(HKMA)也随之提高了基准利率,将其核心利率由0.5%调高0.75个百分点至1.25%; 墨西哥央行也如预期将基准利率上调0.25个百分点至3.25%,两国均是自2008年以来第一次加息;这意味着美国加息有可能引领新一轮全球货币紧缩;
日本央行在上周五的会议中决议其将扩大货币供给量达每年80万亿日元。具体包括:将日本政府国债购买量增至每年80万亿日元,并延长其期限为7-12年;将增加购买交易所交易基金3万亿日元每年与日本房地产投资基金900亿日元每年;保持企业债券购买不变在900亿日元每年。日元在会议之初出现大跌,随后迅速反弹上涨,当日美元/日元由最高点123.56附近一路下滑200余点,主要是由于日本央行的宽松决议并未如市场预期之大;
上周的全球乳制品拍卖中,乳制品均价为2458美元/公吨,较前次仅上涨1.9%,远差于市场预期的5%-10%。全脂奶粉的价格增长1.8%至2304美元/公吨, 仍然距离理想价位3000美元/公吨有很大的距离。乳制品价格难以复苏主要是由于欧洲抢占国际市场所致。纽币再次承压下滑;
新西兰第三季度GDP录得0.9%,好于第二季度的0.3%与第一季度的0.4%;12月份ANZ银行消费信心指数录得23.0,11月份数值为14.6。新西兰经济有好转迹象,然而乳品价格仍然低迷。
本周大事:
周二:美国第三季度GDP终值
周三:新西兰11月份贸易账
英国第三季度经常账目
周四:加拿大10月份核心零售数据
加拿大10月份GDP
美国11月份核心耐用品订单
美国11月份个人消费价格指数变化
美国过11月份耐用品订单
美国11月份个人消费
美国11月份新房销售
美国11月份密歇根大学消费敏感度调查(修正)
美国原油库存量
日本货币政策会议内容
周五:美国申请救济金人数变化
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