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ACB News《澳华财经在线》1月30日讯 全球著名的证券投资技术分析大师戴诺·顾比（Daryl Guppy）日前撰文指出，美国政府强令纽交所将中国联通、中国移动和中国电信退市，目的是遏制和惩罚中国。然而，美国此举将导致与其希望相反的三大后果，无法阻止中国资本市场的进一步壮大。详见《中国三大运营商遭纽约交易所退市处理 私有化回归港、A股？》《中国三大电信运营商将遭纽交所摘牌 证监会回应》
戴诺·顾比表示，第一个后果是美国此举无法阻止投资者对中国公司的投资。由于全球投资者热衷于投资中国公司，即使中国公司被迫在纽交所退市，投资者也将继续在香港等股市继续投资这些被纽交所退市的中国公司。就美国投资者和投资机构而言，成熟的投资者和机构很容易找到绕开美国政府禁令的办法，继续投资这些增长潜力巨大、让人无法抗拒的公司。此外，欧洲指数基金和ETF基金也将推出新产品，进一步吸引全球投资者投资中国资本市场。
第二个后果是，美国此举对在纽交所上市的其他中国公司造成威胁，导致这些公司不得不考虑退市风险，因而寻求在香港上市。随着中国和欧洲达成贸易协定，这些公司还会考虑在欧洲股市挂牌。
第三个后果是，此举将放慢资本从中国流入美国的速度，原因是有上市计划的中国公司为了安全起见，将避开纽交所而选择在香港等地上市，或者直接在上交所或深交所上市，直接吸引外国资本。这对纽交所来说显然是一种损失。
具体来讲，投资者将使用交叉连接交易平台直接投资在上海和深圳股市上市的中国公司。通过这些平台，投资者还可以投资中国债券市场。此外，投资者还能够使用这些平台投资上海股市科创板，享受中国经济和科技高速发展带来的红利。
戴诺·顾比最后指出，中国开放的资本市场为全球投资者和投资机构提供了投资机会。他（它）们应当感谢特朗普，因为他无意之间鼓励了对中国资本市场的直接投资。
编者按：Daryl Guppy是一位金融技术分析国际专家。十多年来，他每周都为中国内地媒体提供上证指数分析。Guppy经常出现在CNBC亚洲频道上，被誉为“K线技术分析大师”，他同时是ACBC澳大利亚中国工商委员会全国理事。该文英文原文在CGTN首发，本网已获得作者授权编译刊发此文，文中所表达的观点仅代表作者本人观点。
附：英文全文
Expanding China's capital markets
/ Daryl Guppy
Editor's note: Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for Chinese mainland media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is known as "The Chart Man." He is a national board member of the Australia China Business Council. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.
In a wonderful example of irony, the last gasps of the Donald Trump administration breathed additional life and vitality into the Shanghai and Hong Kong equity markets. This is the unintended consequence of decisions designed to contain and punish China. It comes on top of an already bullish outlook for Chinese economic growth.
The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) started the process of delisting securities of three Chinese telecom companies, after President Trump barred U.S. investments in Chinese firms that Washington says are owned or controlled by the military. Originally slated for the first week of January, the on-again, off-again timetable for delisting now seems uncertain as the NYSE begins to fully grasp the consequences of this action.
NYSE said the issuers, China Telecom Corporation, China Mobile and China Unicom (Hong Kong), were no longer suitable for listing because Trump's order prohibited any transactions in securities "designed to provide investment exposure to such securities, of any Communist Chinese military company, by any United States person".
Sim cards inside acrylic block ornaments at a China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd. store in Shanghai, China, January 6, 2021. /Getty
The first consequence of delisting is to destroy the value of any current holdings in these companies for private investors, funds, and index funds. Buyback compensation arrangements are typically made at disadvantageous prices. Losing investment value as a result of a forced government decision does not make for a happy investment community. This delisting pulls the heat out of many investment products designed to give U.S. investors exposure to China growth.
The move by the NYSE follows global index providers MSCI, S&P Dow Jones Indices and FTSE Russell and NASDAQ deleting various Chinese companies from their indexes and their Exchange Traded Fund index products.
The reputational damage to the safety and security of stock market listing in the U.S. is substantial.
The first unintended consequence? Global investors are hungry for exposure to the Chinese market, so they will follow these delisted companies to their new listing home on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The less sophisticated American investors will be excluded from participation but the more sophisticated investors and funds will undoubtedly find ways around this U.S. ban. The growth of the Chinese market and of these companies is simply too attractive to ignore.
The exclusion of these China giants and 35 other companies identified by the Pentagon, cripples the representative nature of the Exchange Traded Funds products designed to give foreign investors easy exposure to the China market. It's a welcome business opportunity to European index and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) providers to develop new products which can be offered on a global scale ex the United States.
The second unintended consequence? This comes in two parts. First is the increasing threat to any Chinese company listed in the United States. The threat was highlighted with the pirate-like attack on TikTok where a successful company was forced to hand over its treasures at metaphorical gun-point. Emboldened by the success of this tactic, Trump continued his assault on Chinese companies listed in America. In the last weeks of his presidency, the attack extended to Chinese payment apps WePay, Alipay and others.
Nobody knows which Chinese company will be next in the firing line and many are quietly considering a secondary listing in Hong Kong as the primary means of accessing foreign capital. Following the China-EU trade agreement, there may also be increased interest in listing on European exchanges.
The second part of this unintended consequence is to slow the flow of capital out of China into the U.S. as Chinese companies revise their plans for a U.S. market listing. For safety, they may choose to list in Hong Kong or access foreign capital directly from Shanghai.
And when it comes to the third unintended consequence, limiting the ability of investors to access the China market indirectly using U.S.-based Western investment products encourages more investors to look at direct investment into the China market using the Cross Connect trading platforms. These are platforms that facilitate direct trading of stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen.
These cross-connect platforms have expanded beyond equities and now include the China Bond market with Bond Connect. They provide easy access to the fastest growing economy in the world. Increasingly for U.S. citizens this access is blocked by the actions of the U.S. government, but these avenues remain open for other Western and European investors.
These platforms also provide direct access to the unprecedented growth in China's NASDAQ equivalent, the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market. The Shanghai Technology Exchange in partnership with Shanghai Stock Exchange has built a pool of over 1200 tech companies ready for STAR Market listing. More than 100 tech companies are in the pipeline for STAR market listing in 2021.
An open capital market providing direct access to an expanding economy is an attractive proposition for global institutional and private investors. They will thank Trump for inadvertently encouraging direct investment into China capital markets.
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